8-27-2024 4:48am

LOCAL STORM SEASON

MD Faces 'Supercharged' Hurricane Season: AccuWeather Forecast

Forecasters say 6 to 10 named storms may form in the Atlantic from Aug. 27-Sept. 30 weeks after Hurricane Debby drenched parts of Maryland.

MARYLAND — The hurricane season could soon ramp up along the East Coast, where Maryland and Northeast states were slammed by costly floods from Hurricane Debby earlier this month.

AccuWeather forecasters are calling the upcoming peak of hurricane season, "Supercharged September."

Debby was blamed for the deaths of six people as the storm tore through Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas before heading further up the coast — leaving behind massive flooding and widespread power outages and causing 500 water rescues. Debby is the root of billions of dollars in damage across multiple states, forecasters said.

And now, AccuWeather forecasters say six to 10 named storms may brew in the Atlantic Ocean from Aug. 27-Sept. 30.

The rainfall varied by location in Maryland, but strong gusts up to 47 mph left 30,000 Maryland customers without power during the peak.

Anne Arundel County and Baltimore County bore the brunt of the storm, which was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone before arrival. The 4.54-foot storm surge in Annapolis was the 10th-worst flood in the city's recorded history. The record 7.16 feet of inundation came in 2003's Tropical Storm Isabel.

“We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a news release. "There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms that we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020. The statistical peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and we expect the Atlantic basin to be incredibly active.”

Uptick in Tropical Threats

The South has gotten a brief break from tropical weather this week due to disturbances blending with dust in the western Sahara after Hurricane Ernesto left its footprint along the Eastern Seaboard.

However, DaSilva surmises warm waters, minimal dry air and a decrease in disruptive wind shear could lead to an organized storm every few days. The Saharan dust is expected to diminish in coming weeks.

Additionally, DaSilva the surface temperatures of the sea and the ocean's heat content, which tells how deep warm waters are stretching under the surface, are near or at record-high levels in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical threats from the 2024 storm season could extend into November, DaSilva said.

“If the wind shear holds off and we see more influences from La Niña later this season, we could see one, two or even three named storms in November,” DaSilva said.

Flood Warning

As with most major storms, flooding could be a hassle for affected residents. Forecasters said, during an already costly hurricane year, that flooding could impact inland areas.

"We’ve seen historic flash flooding, destructive wind damage and even dozens of damaging tornadoes spin up as these storms move inland,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in a news release. “AccuWeather experts issued a preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Debby in the United States of $28 billion. AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Beryl last month in the United States is $28-32 billion.”

Forecasters worry the impending storms could reach areas as far as hundreds of miles from the coastal region. For example, DaSilva said Beryl entered the U.S. via the Texas coast but produced "dozens of destructive tornadoes" as it traveled inland from the Gulf Coast to upstate New York.

As for Debby, the devastating storm drenched Florida and the Carolinas, forcing floods in thousands of homes and businesses, DaSilva said.

Georgia officials were nervous Debby could backpedal toward the Peach State after killing a Moultrie resident and dropping at least 10 inches of rainfall along the coast. Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security shared photos showing buildings sitting in piles of water and caved roads due to flooding.

Debby, as it traveled through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, "unleashed impressive rainfall that was too much for streams and creeks to keep up with," DaSilva said.

“As AccuWeather accurately forecast ahead of other known sources, destructive flash flooding and water rescues in Pennsylvania and New York, all caused by a hurricane that made landfall in Florida," DaSilva said.

Porter added rainfall not linked to a tropical storm prompted dangerous flash flooding in Connecticut and Long Island, New York.

The flooding may not be over in the East Coast. Porter said eastern states could be at an increased risk for flash flooding should another tropical storm or hurricane enters the area in September.

Though a named storm may sit far offshore, DaSilva warned it could still generate dangerous surf conditions and fatal rip currents.

“We want everyone, especially tourists and families visiting beaches, to understand that the weather may look nice at the shore, but a storm hundreds of miles away can create powerful rip currents," DaSilva said. "We’ve seen too many tragic cases of rip current drownings on sunny days when there’s a storm brewing hundreds of miles out to sea.”

Particularly, three people have died due to rip currents this month near the Carolina coast, AccuWeather said.

Climate Change and Hurricane Season

Climate change and a warming atmosphere could be a factor in the high hurricane activity predicted for this year, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson said in the release.

Intense and coastal flooding is expected to continue elevating in the region, Anderson said.

“With the climate changing, the lower atmosphere is warming, and warmer air is able to hold more moisture compared to cooler air, which can increase the risk for more extreme precipitation rates in a storm or hurricane,” Anderson said in the release.

“Sea surface temperatures over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where Debby saw its greatest increase in strength, continue to run near record high levels. The added amount of heat to these waters clearly provided an additional boost of energy for the storm before it made landfall, allowing it to reach category 1 strength. Dry air on the western side of the storm may have prevented Debby from rapidly strengthening into a Category 2 or higher hurricane.”

Anderson encouraged families, officials and businesses to ready themselves for storm impacts, which could financially swell in future years.