12-02-2024 11:49am

A CALMER, WARMER

How Much Snow Will We See This Winter In MD? See 4 Predictions

Several forecasters have put forward their predictions for how snowy winter in Maryland will be. Here's a look at what they're saying.

How cold and snowy will the upcoming winter be in Maryland?

While winter doesn't officially start until Dec. 21, meteorological winter began this weekend — on Dec. 1.

Several forecasters have put forward their predictions for how snowy the season will be here in the Free State. Here's a look at what they're saying:

An AccuWeather 2024-25 winter forecast predicts warmer weather and reduced snowfall. A late-winter cold blast is also possible, however.

Winter will have some “meteorological twists and turns” that could bring bursts of heavy snow and blasts of bitterly cold air, according to the private weather company's forecast. One of the major factors playing into this long-range forecast is the La Niña weather pattern, which can influence the trajectory of snowstorms.

The forecast called for below-average snowfall and a poor ski season in Maryland. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said a dip in the polar vortex could still accompany late-winter storms. “The Northeast and mid-Atlantic ski season could be saved late if this occurs.”

Temperatures are expected to be 2 to 3 degrees above normal.

The wintry weather will be interspersed with some calmer periods, as air from the Pacific flows across the country. Forecasters said that snow is possible in the Northeast during December, although January is predicted to be milder.

February is the most probable month for the arrival of a polar vortex — a large area of cold, low-pressure air rotating around Earth’s poles that can expand in the winter and send cold air southward. However, there’s less certainty this year about when, or if, the extreme cold air will make it to the continental U.S.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac

In its 2024-2025 outlook, The Old Farmer’s Almanac released calls for the coming season to be "a calmer, gentler winter" for much of the United States.

“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” said Carol Connare, the Old Almanac’s editor-in-chief. “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter — potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”

The Atlantic Corridor Region, which includes much of Maryland, is predicted to be average to slightly warmer than average this winter, except for in February — when forecasters say to expect colder weather than normal.

"The region will also experience shots of cold in mid-December, early and late January, and late February," the publication added.

Snowfall will be slightly below normal in the southern part of the Atlantic Corridor Region, with the most wintry precipitation expected in late December and late February.

Precipitation in coastal Maryland will be slightly below normal this winter. In this region, snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south. The most snow is expected to arrive in late December and late February.

In central and western Maryland, winter temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal, and below-normal precipitation is expected. The coldest periods will occur from mid-January into early February and in late February.

The Farmers' Almanac

The 208th edition of the Farmers' Almanac predicts a "Wet Winter Whirlwind" for the 2024-2025 winter season. Its forecast calls for rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow, with little downtime in between.

"We anticipate the winter of 2024-25 will be wet and cold for most locations," The Farmers' Almanac predicts.

Mild temperatures mixed with snowy conditions are expected this winter in Maryland, the editors said.

The Farmers' Almanac says it is "red flagging" the final full week of January over most of the nation's eastern half. Expect a very active storm track with frequent bouts of heavy precipitation along with strong gusty winds.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected this winter in Maryland, according to a winter 2024-25 outlook for December, January and February.

The probabilities for above normal precipitation versus below normal precipitation are about 50-50 in Maryland, according to the updated winter outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

Specifically, the outlook puts the chance of above normal temperatures at between 40 percent and 50 percent, and the chance of above normal precipitation at 50 percent in Maryland.

NOAA said data supports the development of a weak La Niña that lacks some of the blustery punch traditionally seen in such climate patterns. In the Northeast, temperatures are expected to be above normal up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Precipitation is expected to be above normal in much of the region, that forecast predicts.